Egypt faces a multifaceted challenge involving the complex interplay of climate change, socio-economic, and political issues. These include absolute water scarcity, food insecurity, rapid urbanization, and a population projected to reach a staggering 160 million by 2050. The implications of climate change in Egypt are wide-ranging and affect various aspects of security, including water, food, economic stability, and livelihoods. This intricate web of challenges has heightened Egypt’s environmental, social, and economic fragility, placing considerable pressure on policymakers to devise and implement effective mitigation strategies.
The situation is further exacerbated by regional conflicts and economic instability, which have culminated in a migrant and refugee population of approximately nine million people in Egypt. Environmental factors such as drought, land degradation, and the sharing of transboundary resources are significant drivers of migration, compounding geopolitical tensions and underscoring the intricate relationship between climate change and human mobility. Addressing these intertwined challenges requires a holistic approach that integrates climate change adaptation with broader socio-economic policies.
Framing Climate Risks in Egypt
Egypt is currently grappling with an array of climate-related impacts, including rising temperatures, particularly during the sweltering summer months, extreme weather events, rising sea levels, and severe water scarcity. According to Egypt’s Third National Communication on Climate Change released by the Ministry of Environment in 2016, the country could witness a sea-level rise of up to one meter by 2100. This alarming projection could result in land subsidence in the Nile Delta and saltwater intrusion into coastal groundwater and soils. Consequently, the nation must prepare to confront extreme climatic events stemming from climate change.
In recognition of the profound nature of these challenges, the Egyptian government has rolled out comprehensive measures to counter them through the National Climate Change Strategy 2050. This forward-looking strategy aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 33% by 2030, with a significant focus on transitioning to renewable energy sources. As the energy sector is responsible for 64.5% of the country’s total emissions, this transition is vital to support sustainable growth and low-carbon development. Additional objectives outlined in the strategy include enhancing adaptive capacity and resilience, improving climate change action governance, bolstering climate financing infrastructure, and fostering science, knowledge, and technology transfer.
Spotlight on the Climate, Peace, and Fragility Nexus
Climate change not only intensifies existing issues such as water scarcity but also severely affects agricultural productivity, which is integral to Egypt’s economy and livelihoods. The World Bank has identified Egypt’s Nile Delta as one of the world’s most extreme vulnerability hotspots. With the Nile River providing approximately 97% of Egypt’s freshwater resources, which are crucial for agriculture employing nearly 55% of the labor force, any potential impacts of climate change on the Nile’s flow paired with increased evaporation rates could have devastating repercussions on the country’s water, food, and economic security.
The interconnection between climate change, peace, and security is of growing concern in Egypt. Environmental stressors are increasingly seen as multiplying threats that exacerbate existing vulnerabilities and societal tensions. Intensified climate impacts such as water scarcity, land degradation, and extreme weather events can lead to heightened competition for natural resources, potentially igniting conflicts and undermining social cohesion. According to estimates by the Climate Centre, a 0.5-meter rise in sea levels could displace between two to four million Egyptians by 2050.
Adding to this complexity is the influx of refugees and migrants driven by climate-related challenges in neighboring regions. This situation underscores the necessity of addressing the nexus of climate, peace, and security to cultivate a stable and resilient society. Prioritizing research and formulating policies addressing these interconnected challenges can mitigate risks and foster inclusive development. This would ensure that vulnerable populations can adapt to the evolving climate conditions while maintaining social harmony.
Workshop Objectives
A recent workshop convened a diverse group of stakeholders, including researchers, academic institutions, NGOs, and experts from UN agencies, with the explicit aim of addressing critical issues related to climate change in Egypt. The event had several key objectives, the first of which was to contextualize critical research themes by identifying the impacts of climate change, recognizing pre-existing vulnerabilities, and predicting potential fragility outcomes.
Another primary goal was to map existing research initiatives that intersect with climate change and livelihood security, urban fragility, and migration. This mapping exercise was instrumental in identifying research gaps and highlighting projects that could be scaled up to effectively address these challenges. The workshop also focused on designing potential future research projects, encompassing key research questions and objectives and proposing relevant research methodologies.
The workshop’s broader ambition was to establish a dynamic network of Egyptian researchers, scholars, and youth leaders committed to advancing the climate, peace, and security agenda in Egypt and the broader MENA region. Such a network is essential for fostering collaboration, sharing knowledge, and promoting innovative solutions to Egypt’s climate-related challenges.
Identifying Key Research Areas
During the workshop, participants delved into research initiatives and goals across three vital areas: Climate Change and Livelihood Security, Climate Change and Urban Fragility, and Climate Change, Migration, and Displacement.
Climate Change and Livelihood Security
Participants identified smallholder farmers, women and children, and individuals working in the informal sector as particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Water scarcity, which climate change exacerbates, emerged as a principal contributor to fragility risks across Egypt. Scientists noted that water scarcity could lead to increased food insecurity, heightened competition over resource access, growing inequalities, additional burdens on vulnerable groups, and significant strains on water management systems, ultimately weakening economic stability.
Highlighting research gaps, participants emphasized the need to understand sources of vulnerability, conflict, and tension better. Strengthening collaboration among community members in agri-food systems and analyzing the impact of climate change and water scarcity on family dynamics and social connections were also highlighted as critical areas needing further exploration. Potential research projects discussed included assessing biodiversity and local breeds to build resilient agri-food system livelihoods, evaluating tensions and social cohesion in response to climate change hotspots, and conducting a gender assessment to empower women in the production value chains of medicinal and aromatic plants in rural areas.
Climate Change and Urban Fragility
The impact of climate change on urban areas in Egypt remains under-researched. Climate-induced urban fragility can be caused by direct effects such as urban heat islands, prolonged heatwaves, or heavy rainfall, which significantly impact the health and well-being of vulnerable groups, including the elderly, women, children, and residents of informal and underserved areas. Coastal cities are particularly at risk, with rising sea levels threatening infrastructure and cultural heritage sites. Additionally, migration from climate-affected rural areas to cities exacerbates vulnerability and fragility.
Discussions focused on how climate change impacts public services in cities, especially concerning water quality and quantity and electricity delivery. Participants identified numerous compounding risks, including environmental risks through pollution, urban resource mismanagement, and lack of environmental justice. Economic risks arose from unemployment, informal sector employment, industrial pollution, and a lack of a supportive business environment for the green economy. Social risks such as social classism, housing policies, gender inequalities, and unequal access to resources and services were also significant concerns. The absence of policy development and enabling environments was seen as an additional risk, leading to health hazards, increased crime, social distrust, tensions, vulnerabilities of marginalized groups, and potential public service dissatisfaction.
A central topic for future research is assessing the obstacles to designing an equitable and resilient-built environment in light of growing climate threats. This involves understanding the multifaceted nature of urban fragility and implementing strategies that mitigate risks while promoting sustainable urban development.
Climate Change, Migration, and Displacement
The group discussing climate-driven migration identified various types of migration and key push and pull factors. Push factors included economic insecurity, lack of job opportunities, mismanagement of local resources, structural inequalities (including gender inequality), resource access and land rights issues, land fragmentation, and lack of infrastructure and security. The interactions of these factors concerning both incoming and outgoing migration in Egypt remain inadequately explored.
Migration and displacement processes lead to decreased social cohesion as people establish new livelihoods in host communities. This results in increased resource stress, food insecurity, political instability, health problems, and overburdened service systems. Marginalized groups often face heightened vulnerability in these contexts. Also, loss of biodiversity contributes to ecosystem fragility. A suggested research project involved assessing the role of climate change in women’s mobility in the Nile Delta, improving understanding of the most affected sectors, vulnerable employment types, mobility paths, and livelihood locations for displaced populations.
A Path Forward
Climate change worsens existing problems like water scarcity and severely impacts agricultural productivity, crucial for Egypt’s economy and people’s livelihoods. The World Bank has labeled Egypt’s Nile Delta as a significant vulnerability hotspot. Given that the Nile River supplies about 97% of Egypt’s freshwater, crucial for the agriculture sector, which employs nearly 55% of the labor force, any changes in the Nile’s flow and increased evaporation rates from climate change could severely harm the country’s water, food, and economic security.
The link between climate change, peace, and security is increasingly worrying in Egypt. Environmental pressures are seen as multiplying threats that worsen existing vulnerabilities and societal tensions. Severe climate impacts, such as water scarcity, land degradation, and extreme weather events, can lead to more competition for natural resources, potentially sparking conflicts and weakening social cohesion. According to the Climate Centre, a 0.5-meter rise in sea levels could displace two to four million Egyptians by 2050.
Complicating matters further is the arrival of refugees and migrants fleeing climate-related challenges in nearby regions. This situation highlights the importance of addressing the connection between climate, peace, and security to build a stable and resilient society. Prioritizing research and creating policies that address these interconnected challenges can reduce risks and promote inclusive development. This approach would help vulnerable populations adapt to changing climate conditions while preserving social harmony.