EIA’s recently released Annual Energy Outlook 2017 (AEO2017) Reference case projects that U.S. tight oil production will increase to more than 6 million barrels per day (b/d) in the coming decade, making up most of total U.S. oil production.
After 2026, tight oil production remains relatively constant through 2040 in the Reference case as tight oil development moves into less productive areas and as well productivity decreases. Side cases with different resource and technology assumptions result in different tight oil and total U.S. oil production projections.
