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Why Oil Forecasting Is So Difficult Now: Short-Cycle vs. Long-Cycle vs. “Peak Demand”

March 21, 2017

Oil experts are deeply divided in their views on the future of what is still the world’s key commodity. This divergence was on display at last week’s CERA Conference in Houston, which brought together industry executives, consultants, media, and government officials from around the world. Although I didn’t attend in person, the organizers provided extensive streaming coverage of keynote talks and interviews with thought leaders.

From OPEC oil ministers and the head of the International Energy Agency, we heard that the world could be headed for another supply crunch within a few years, due to low investment following 2014’s oil-price collapse. I’ve mentioned this concern before.

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