The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that US petroleum and other liquid fuels production, which in addition to crude oil and condensate production includes natural gas plant liquids derived from natural gas processing as well as biofuels and volume gain at refineries, is projected to grow from 14.8 million bpd in 2015 to 18.6 million bpd in 2040 in its Annual Energy Outlook 2016 (AEO2016) Reference case.
Given the uncertainty inherent in making projections, AEO2016 also includes several alternative cases, based on different assumptions for world oil prices, macroeconomic growth, resource availability, technology improvement, and other factors.
