Prices in the past few years have been much more stable than in the past, as the figure below shows. It is easy to see why some people think that price volatility has declined, but important to think about why, and what could change that.
About a decade ago, a researcher (whose name I don’t recall) pointed out that oil prices used to be highly—and negatively—correlated with U.S. private crude inventories, but that since 2004, the relationship had been correlated but positively so. (First figure below.) Needless to say, the idea that higher inventories would raise prices seemed absurd, but it is hard to argue against reality (unless you’re an academic).
