The production losses in Venezuela are not a surprise. Output has plunged below 1.5 mb/d, down 600,000 bpd since 2016. The country is in crisis and the recent crackdown on Chevron employees in the country presages more production declines, particularly if the remaining private companies start to cut back on their personnel and spending.
But another source of production declines has gone largely unnoticed in western media. Angola is producing 260,000 bpd less than its OPEC production target, according to Reuters. Its oil fields are suffering from natural declines, a problem that will be difficult to reverse. Angola’s offshore oil fields are costly to maintain, and there is little sign that the necessary investment is forthcoming.