Global demand growth has been slowing over the last decades, and it is forecast to grow at around 1 percent or less into the future. The actual year-to-year figures, though, are volatile. Large-scale movements like increasing efficiency, decreasing costs of alternatives, and effects of policy changes can be slow to unfold, difficult to see, and very difficult to predict.
If today’s optimistic outlook persists, then the industry is likely to be caught by surprise when demand shifts. Oil prices will not be inherently lower during the very long future decline of oil, but the nature of the cycles will change, especially the first cycle in which demand fails to grow.
