The near-term outlook for oil markets is a mess. Price volatility recently reached its highest level since the global financial crisis as traders, investors and the industry as a whole try to sort through the significance of two big changes: the rapid rise of the upstart U.S. shale industry, which grew from essentially nothing in 2010 to being the world’s sixth largest source of oil supplies in 2015; and Saudi Arabia’s decision to abandon its role as market manager.
