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Oil rally and Saudi price spikes could hurt refiners, stifling market recovery

June 8, 2020

Oil prices pared gains on Monday, despite the weekend announcement by OPEC and its allies, known as OPEC+, that historic production cuts of 9.6 million barrels per day across the group would continue through July as the coronavirus pandemic continues to weigh on demand.

The move spurred hopeful talk of a recovery for oil prices, which are down about 30% year-to-date after a 56% recovery for international benchmark Brent crude in the month of May. But data from refineries across several regions shows weak margins, or “crack spreads” — the difference between the price of crude that refiners buy versus the price that the market is paying for the refined products.

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