The U.S. stock market, after plunging late in 2018, has largely recovered, yet thinking about the economy in coming months should include the possibility of a recession or at least significant economic slowing in the U.S. and the world more generally. The IMF recently lowered its growth forecast for 2019 by 0.2% and for 2020 by 0.1%. That revision is certainly small, but since most forecasters tend to be lagging indicators, predicting a recession after it occurs, this could be suggestive of further revisions.
