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Origins of the Solar Learning Curve

November 21, 2017

The experience curve is a useful tool for forecasting future cost reductions in solar.

This curve, also known as the learning curve, reveals a consistent pattern in solar: for every cumulative doubling of production volume, the price of PV modules has decreased at an average of around 20 percent.

It has been this way since the early days of the industry (with some ups and downs due to varying market conditions) and it continues to this day.

But there’s one problem. People keep calling this phenomenon “Swanson’s Law,” named after me.

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