EIA projects that trends in coal production in the United States could range from flat to continuing declines through 2040. Electric power generation accounts for more than 92% of U.S. coal demand, and domestic coal production has declined significantly over the past decade as coal has been displaced by natural gas and renewables in electric generation.
EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2017 (AEO2017) includes cases with alternative assumptions about U.S. environmental policy and levels of oil and natural gas resource development and technological advancement. Across these cases, the outlook for coal can vary considerably based on its relative economics compared with natural gas and renewables in the power sector.
